Late Feb. 1988: Bush at Nadir

Despite his victory, the New Hampshire primary was actually a disaster for Bush.  It simply confirmed the suspicions about his campaign.

He followed it up with a quick win in Nevada, barely edging out Dole 27%-22%. But then, as now, the Silver State was seen more in the realm of a wild-and-wooly caucus subject to crass manipulation.

Pat Robertson, who had made a specialty of these events already, popped back into the teens in Nevada for 15%. Jack Kemp was now climbing at 13%. He had apparently begun to solidify Pierre du Pont's voters behind him.

Nevada had been just another must-win for Bush, to keep the sheen of having some inside tack to being Reagan's successor. All he had proved so far as the voters weren't ready to throw him out of contention.

The momentum seemed clearly with Bob Dole, and now also with Kemp.

And then the bottom dropped out for Bush:

On Feb. 23, eight years to the day of his being humiliated by Ronald Reagan on live television at Nashua, Bush was kicked in the teeth by the voters of Minnesota, who sent him to a dismal fourth place at 11%, and also by South Dakota, where he finished in third. The two states confirmed Dole's early strength in Iowa, and extended it to a larger territory, where Bush was apparently weak.

Populous Minnesota gave Dole a solid dominating win at 43%, and even put Bush behind Robertson 28% and Jack Kemp 15%. He had done a little better in South Dakota, although had still lost to Robertson. The next day, Wyoming chimed in with a similar 3rd place result for him behind Dole and Robertson. The only good news was that Kemp was struggling with erratic support. There was still hope.

It must have seemed like the unthinkable was happening: Bush was losing.

The fight will be tough. No time to lose one's head, he must have said to himself. You are a Bush. You are made of strong fiber, the best of what makes America good. Time to rally and figure out the path forward. There has to be a path that leads to victory, even if it is narrow. 

But his comeback needed to happen fast.  If he lost momentum, and lost the election, America would go on without him. Moreover, and much worse for him and his family, the Establishment would go on without him. It would find new leadership, someone to lead it forward in history. That was how it had to be.

But without him being elected the world would not go forward in an Age of Establishment Glory.

Unconsciously or consciously America must have ached for him to win because he was, he knew, as close as one could get at that moment of history, to embodying the genius of the American system, and all the best strains of its history on the continent.

He had spent a lifetime becoming that, and getting to this position. He had served the best interests of America at each step of the way.

America needed this new era to happen, with him guiding it. What else could have been the purpose of his life, in doing all that he had done?

The world needed this new era to happen, lest the nations blow themselves apart in their ignorance.

He alone knew how to make it all happen

Bush had to win.