February 1988: Bush Against the Wall

continued from 1988: When Bush Became Bush.

"Dole Wins in Iowa, With Robertson Next" from the N.Y.Times

"...threatened to be a humiliation for Mr.Bush." (from the article).

They had known going in to the election that it was not a lock. One must expect crises. They must have had a plan for this scenario. Still the reality of it must have been heavy for them, with a sense of urgency to fix things as soon as possible before it got worse. The window of history was short.

In some ways, this was exactly the kind of situation Bush thrived in, to be thrown up against the wall. He took it as a personal affront, and would marshal all his will to rectify it.

Moreover, just as he had learned from Jimmy Carter's 1976 that the Iowa caucus was the secret route to the nomination, he had a playbook to follow. Once again, it was supplied to him by the very man who had beaten him, namely Ronald Reagan.

In 1980,  by skillful and subtle ground game like Carter in 1976, the quiet Bush had pulled the same upset win over Reagan in Iowa. It had been seen as possibly putting Reagan's drive to the nomination in doubt.  Reagan, after all, was a Midwesterner. He had been a popular radio announcer in his youth in Des Moines. His loss there had the air of a mild rebuke.

What followed after Iowa that year a long four weeks until the New Hampshire primary. There was enough time for Bush to pad his momentum with a guerilla-style victory in the largely uncontested Puerto Rico, which the Republicans had hopes of admitting as state in the near future, (based on the idea that it would almost automatically supply two Republican members of the U.S. Senate)*. A headline is a headline. A victory is a victory.

Things had started looking for good for the upstart, obscure "Ambassador Bush."

But late February, just one day after the "Miracle on Ice" at Lake Placid, at the television debate in Nashua, N.H., the California governor had elevated himself to cult figure status with his famous angry confrontation with the debate officials on stage:

From Youtube. February 23, 1980. When Reagan became Reagan. His glare across the stage, followed up his  claim to be "paying for that microphone", was greeted with wild enthusiasm by the crowd, who saw in him a figure who could take on and defeat the Establishment. It was especially humiliating for Bush, in that other candidates, including Bob Dole, Howard Baker, and John Anderson actually joined in the applause for Reagan. Bush in glasses can be seen looking at the other candidates, in confusion as to what he is supposed to do. It was as if the contest had been settled right then and there with a unanimous endorsement by acclamation.

Four days later, Reagan won a crushing 50% victory in New Hampshire, and in many respects, he never looked back:

1980 Republican primary results

1980 Republican primary results as of February 26.

For Bush in 1988, following Reagan's post-Iowa recovery script seemed simple, but there was already a problem. Bush could get his dander up like anyone. That was not the issue. Rather it was the simple fact that unlike what Reagan had faced there in 1980, New Hampshire in 1988 was widely seen as home court for Bush.  Officially he was a Texan, and he held residence in Houston, but in the public eye he was still seen as a Preppie New Englander who made his home as much in Kennebunkport, Maine.

So his victory in New Hampshire the follow-up week could not automatically carry the weight that Reagan's victory there had, as solidifying him as the front runner. New Hampshire was seen as a must-win for him.  Only an overwhelming victory, as he had in the Michigan straw poll, would serve to put the sheen of the winner back on him.

The results on Feb 16 were not very encouraging for him:

1988 Republican primary results

As of Feb. 16, including the straw polls leading up to the Iowa caucus. from Wikipedia

Bush had won, but with only 38% of the vote.  Dole was not squashed down in the teens but was fairly close behind at a solid 29%, making him apparently the most national candidate in terms of his crossover support. Moreover, Jack Kemp and Pierre du Pont were showing enough support to hang around and to cut deeply into Bush's base, right as Dole was picking up a little steam.

The only good news was that Robertson only got 9%, marking him as a regional candidate. Yet that had been the general assumption all along, that Robertson was no real threat, so it was only mild comfort, given the other issues he was facing.

Dole's second place finish was almost a win. Suddenly it seemed as if America was ready to embrace a Bush-less future.

*Gerald Ford had advocated Puerto Rico statehood as a lame-duck in Dec. 1976, after being defeated by Carter. He announced his support on camera while skiing in Vail, Colorado.