February 28, 1988: Bush at the Turning Point

Every great moment of history is unique in some way. Bush had followed successful playbooks so well, even through the long humiliation of being Reagan's useless sidekick. But now t it was failing him.

To win, he would need unique genius. He would need to go beyond the playbook, to something new that was pure Bush.

He had one ace to play---the upcoming caucus in his true home state of Maine, the location of the Kennebunkport family compound on the rocky coast.

Maine would come through for him. It would wake the nation. That was what Maine was about, after all---the steely rock-ribbed determination to save the Union when it was in its gravest danger, as it had been in July 1863 at Little Round Top at Gettysburg, when the famous downhill bayonet charge by the 20th Maine Volunteers had broken the Alabama line, and with it, the hopes of the Confederacy of splintering America in two.

A hundred years later, every Maine town of any size had a monument of a Union soldier, usually standing at ease with a rifle (ironically the statues are grey). 

Against the backdrop of Bush's wretched losing streak in February 1988, the nations' attention had been focused partly on the Winter Olympics in Calgary, where the United States struggled to win medals. The U.S. hockey team looked so inept that it was openly compared to the Denver Broncos in their recent Super Bowl blow out.

Hidy and Howdy, the mascots of the 1988 Calgary games

Logo from Wikipedia. 'The Games are also remembered for the "heroic failure" of British ski jumper Eddie "The Eagle" Edwards and the Winter Olympic debut of the Jamaica national bobsled team, both of which would be subjects of major feature films about their participation in the games.' Unlike the financially disastrous Montreal games in 1976, the Calgary games actually made a profit, largely because they had soaked ABC for $309 million for the American television rights. The games turned out to be a flop for the network, which was forced to remand payment to advertisers for the dismal ratings they generated.

Bush needed not just a win in Maine, but a huge win.

Fittingly, on the next to last day of February, on the day that the underwhelming 1988 Calgary Games stumbled to a close, the voters of Maine gave Bush the crushing 64% victory he needed. Dole was humiliated with 8%. Even Robertson beat him.

Dole had not even competed there. That was a fatal mistake for him. He should have pressed his advantage. Never concede anything. This mistake was all Bush needed to right the ship in the media. Suddenly Dole was the one seen as weak.

From L.A. Times.  Feb. 29, 1988.

Maine was the very soul of the Republican Party. It was special. The results were a huge resounding message from Down East, a rebuke to the states that had voted against their favorite son Bush, and a bugle blast to the ones yet to follow: we know Bush and this man must become President!

To Bush it must have felt as if the spirit of the commemorated Union soldiers in the statues had risen up to give him a smashing victory.

Moreover, the victory in Maine was not Reagan's playbook but all his, as unique as his moment in history. It would be his great turning point.

In 2016, Ted Cruz scored a strong and rather unexpected (46%-33%) victory over Trump in the Maine caucus on the weekend after Super Tuesday. It would be Cruz's sole victory east of Wisconsin. At the time it allowed Cruz to pour cold water on Trump's momentum coming out of his Super Tuesday triumphs, and to set the stage for a month of Cruz momentum. In a way Cruz borrowed a bit from Bush's script in 1988, using Maine as hammer to change the narrative of the nomination.

from Google