Remarkably similar to Ohio in Mar. 15, where Columbus north suburbs were 60-65% for Kasich. That area on the north side of Columbus was Kasich's home district as a Congressman, and where he built his power base. He ran strong in the adjacent counties all the way to the Indiana and Michigan line (yet won almost nothing across the border in Michigan when it voted).
But Trump won all the counties touching the Ohio River (except Cincinnati itself), and all of the counties bordering Pennsylvania. Kasich thus won a "Rump Ohio," just as Cruz won a "Rump Wisconsin" consisting of the area around the wealthier, newer suburbs in the state, part of which fall into the district Paul Ryan represents. In both instances, each man was acting as the point man for the Establishment in that particular state.
Also around Salt Lake City two weeks ago---same thing: 60-65% for Cruz in the city and its surroundings. Very heavy support from core groups in Mitt Romney's power base. In this case, Cruz also won throughout all of Utah, but he didn't carry a single county in Arizona across the state line voting on the same night. Trump won all of those, including Navajo Country.
Cruz was supposed to do well in the South back in March. He didn't, outside East Texas, in his home state, and parts of neighboring Louisiana. He lost all the counties in South Carolina and Alabama to Trump, who won every single county between Miami and Atlanta.
This is telling me how limited the Establishment base has become within the Republican Party. It has depended on sustaining its momentum around certain key figures in the Party: Romney, Ryan, Kasich, and Scott Walker, whose home bases have dominated the last month of the primaries.
But Jeb Bush is evidently not on the list. Nor was Rubio. They had zero power to deliver Florida. Name another Republican figure of high stature left in the race who can rally his turf for the Establishment like these guys? There is no one. There is no one in California nor anywhere else to help them out at this point.
For good or ill, the Establishment has lost control of the base of the Republican Party. The base no longer sees itself as represented by the core (bipartisan) group of Establishment insiders. This kind of revolt has come up several times before since World War II, but until the Establishment was always able to control it, and draw it back into support for itself. This time it seems to be different.*
The Establishment remains in control of the party for now, but only because it has a loyal cadre of low-level party functionaries throughout the country who still buy into the Greater Bipartisan-centered Establishment cause as a whole.** Many of these people will be delegates at the convention in Cleveland, and there is an assumption they will continue to be loyal to the Establishment, and follow whatever plan the Establishment proposes. This may or may not hold true by then.
*This is generally terrifying to Democrats, who see the threat posed by the revolt as a far greater danger than anything entailed by the continuance of the Establishment system, which they believe can be reformed by changing the legal rules, among other things.
** As do almost all Democrats, who see little hope of achieving of their various political goals without the continuation of the Establishment to maintain political and societal stability, and most importantly to keep intact the organs of government necessary to achieve certain of these goals.
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