The 41 Pennsylvanians Who Will Decide the Nomination

The real story on Tuesday will be how many of the names above are elected as delegates in Pennsylvania If all or even nearly all of them win, then Trump will likely have close to 990-1000 committed delegates by the end of the day. He will need less than 20 more to make it to the "red zone", where a California/New Jersey combination win on June 7 would seal it. Indiana on May 3 would almost certainly take him far beyond that number. Nevertheless,  because it allocates delegates proportionally to all candidates who receive a small minimum, Oregon on May 17 is a 100% fallback to get him within a few delegates of that number.

I was wrong about the Pennsylvania Republican primary in a previous post. Although it is true that 54 of 71 of its delegates available on Tuesday are unbound, they are not chosen by party insiders (like Wyoming, etc.) but  actually elected democratically, at the same time that people vote for the candidate himself.

That is, when one goes into the booth in the Keystone State, one votes for the candidate for President, but also for three delegates from one's own Congressional district (of which there are 18 total districts in Pa.).

Most importantly, the candidates for delegate in each district can openly declare whom they intend to support. Essentially they campaign by saying "vote for me, and I will then vote for candidate X at the convention."

The Trump campaign has been circulating the above graphic with 41 people it trusts to support him at the convention, even though technically they will remain unbound. Potentially all 41 could be elected from their various districts. If they do win, then Indiana on May 3 will be a reverse slam dunk for the win for Trump. Everything after that---West Virginia, Oregon, etc.---would just mean he would need a smaller portion of California on June 7 (where he is looking to sweep the state). So these democratically elected unbound delegates in Pennsylvania are yuge.

Trump is likely to blow out the state on Tuesday, and easily win the 17 at-large bound delegates. Logically---since it's the same people voting at the same time---he should sweep the slate of unbound delegates, at least getting close to the 41 listed above. To prevent this from happening, the #NeverTrump forces have to count on people not actually paying attention, and just checking off any name in the delegate part of the ballot.

That's what it has come down to for them---ballot confusion.

More and more, the actual Establishment seems reconciled to the fact that he has already won, and thus they are shifting quickly to Maximum Hillary mode, at least the ones who can stomach it.*

In the Wall Street Journal, Peggy Noonan, one of those journalists who loves the Establishment with the adoration of a girl loving her father,  cannot in fact bear the thought of even Hillary. She can do nothing but weep for what has been lost, and feel sorrow that America ultimately could not understand that the Bush family had their best interests in mind all along.  She knows that we will miss them, once they are gone, and sees nothing but despair ahead in the wake of the Revolution of Crudeness.

The Republican Party establishment (i.e., Mini-Me)  also is slowly coming around, in its own way. The idea of actually winning an election with a popular candidate has a certain appeal to any politician, and some of them see that happening with Trump. Given that he is inevitable, they have nothing to lose in being loyal to the party.

Left out in the cold will be the Cruz-aders---the true believers of the Son of Rafael, like this poor schmuck, and other wanna-be insiders:

They are the right wing versions of the Sanders people, in that mostly they want a rebellion while simultaneously preserving the Establishment, so they can use it to reshape society for their own purposes. Once upon time, they had control of the party, because the Establishment saw them as the best way to harness the energy of opposition to the Democrats. Now they are no longer needed by anyone. Their time will not come again.

*Among other things, they will begin to lean very heavily on Sanders to call it a day.