The Democratic Party Has Left the Building

A year ago, the U.S. had two functioning political parties, both controlled by the Establishment. Everyone expected yet another same-old showdown between them, with so many "real issues" ignored yet again.

One year later, one of those two parties has been destroyed and hollowed out (the Republicans) by a populist uprising. The ruling family clique has fled the Party entirely, along with their Neocon loyalists.

It seemed improbable that the Democratic Party would survive for long in its current state as well. The Sanders movement was a symptom but was not the coup de grace. I knew it wouldn't be long when the Democrats officially turned against Andrew Jackson, and willingly handed that part of its founding soul over to the new Nationalist-Republicans (Trump), as if they couldn't get rid of it fast enough.

Now the crack-up of the Democrats seems to be in progress. I predict this week's convention is going to be the farewell tour of the Party as we know it, reaching its crest on Wednesday night as Obama gives his valediction to history (I'm already looking forward to having my Facebook feed filled with every liberal posting clips form his speech and sighing about how if only we could elect him again...). The drop-offs in enthusiastic video clip sharing from that to the next night, when Hillary speaks, are going to be telling.  It will be interesting to see who the die-hards are, who will stick with her to the bitter end.

The organization of the Democratic Party will survive of course. There is too much institutional inertia and power there, just as there was with the Republicans. But the process of transition to the new era is going to be very different than it was for the GOP (which will turn out to be smoother of the two).

Whereas the Republicans were sacked and captured by a hostile democratic takeover (basically a single outsider, together with the "ignored" base of voters, overwhelming the entire party structure over the course of the primaries and not even completed until the convention intself), the Democrats will likely fracture into multiple factions, some of which are going to walk away from the Party entirely. This is because the reboot of the Party did not occur through a democratic uprising (as it would have, if Sanders had won), but rather through a tightening of top-down control.

The Great Rearrangement is now underway.  The Democrats will split at least three ways: Rump, Johnson, and Stein. The liberals, especially in the media, may not realize how close to the tipping point we are, when the stampede away from Hillary towards immigrant-friendly marijuana-legalizing Johnson (!) will reach critical mass.  Half the wealthy tech crowd in Silicon Valley would walk away to him in a heartbeat, and take all that Party-financing money with them.  Only the Diversity Management Squad will remain. In that massive accelerated movement, the Berniecrats and Greens will be determined not to be left holding the toxic bag. Why not seize the moment? A strong Green could party would perhaps take over and re-invigorate the Democratic Party at some point by 2020.

Bernie himself has one last moment of possible relevance, with his speech tomorrow. If he doesn't throw down he gauntlet and challenge Hillary outright (which he won't), his movement will begin tipping hard to the Greens almost immediately and will leave him behind. He will never be leader of their movement again.