the ticket collector: Ohio in Recent Presidential Elections

2016

Prediction as it stands now. Everything subject to change.

When Obama ran against McCain in 2008, he got the all-time high raw total for any candidate in Ohio (although his margin of victory was still substantially less than the 1964, 1972, and 1984 blowout elections).

Q. Will Hillary Clinton get to Obama's 2008 number (2.94 million)?

A. She'd be lucky to get anywhere vaguely close to it.

Q. Will she get as many votes as Obama did in 2012 against Romney (slightly down at 2.83 million)?

A. Could easily go either way. Given history of the state, she might barely hold onto 2.8 million, or slip further down towards Kerry's 2004 numbers. She is likely to lose several of the bellwether counties along the Pennsylvania border, which have been hard-line old generation Democratic, but which have become utterly estranged from the party in recent years. Meanwhile her support in urban Cleveland almost certainly will be down from Obama's as well.

Q. Will Trump get more votes than Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008 (both within 10,000 votes of 2.67 million)?

A. Almost certainly, by several hundred thousand or more, based on turnout alone, but also with more than a few switch overs from folks who voted for Obama. He could push 3 million and the state record if enthusiasm stays up (see previous post of 4-7-16 "Rump Ohio", cf. 1976 results below).

Overall turnout in the state is likely to be an all-time high.

2012

2,827,621 (50.67%) Obama
2,661,407 (47.69%) Romney
49,493 (0.89%) G. Johnson (Lib)
18,574 (0.33%) J. Stein (Green)

2012 results (source)

2008

2,940,044 (51.38%) Obama
2,677,820 (46.80%) McCain
42,337 (0.74%) Nader (Ind.)
19,917 (0.35%) Barr (Lib)

2008 results (source)

In the autumn of 2008 when Obama first ran, I traveled through southern Ohio, as part of larger road trip, following the north bank of the Ohio River from Indiana border at the Great Miami River upstream as the river valley winds its crazy way upstream towards Pittsburgh. I camped six nights in different places, including two nights in the splendid bucolic parks of Hamilton County in the Cincinnati metro area. Going upstream I visited Ulysses Grant's hometown, and the place on the Underground Railroad that inspired The House of Dies Drear, which I read when I was kid. In the southernmost part of the state, the tobacco growing region, I came into a small town square in the country seat. It was a crisp autumn afternoon on the weekend. I saw the local Democratic party hq and poked my head inside. It was burgeoning with volunteers seemingly with tons of energy. I witnessed the enthusiasm for both Obama, and for their local sheriff candidate (generally the most important election in local rural areas in most of America, judging by yard signs). I knew then that Obama was going to win the election.

2004

Official numbers, the case of Michael Connell notwithstanding. "a high-level Republican consultant who was subpoenaed in a case regarding alleged tampering with the 2004 U.S. Presidential election and a case involving thousands of missing emails pertaining to the political firing of U.S. Attorneys. Connell was killed when the plane he was flying crashed on December 19, 2008. Connell was originally from Illinois and lived in Bath Township, near Akron, Ohio. His company also maintained a website for the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth 527 group during the 2004 election."

2,858,727 (50.8%) Bush
2,739,952 (48.7%) Kerry

2004 results (source)

In 2004, I traveled through northern Ohio in late September, driving along the edge of Lake Erie to Cleveland, then detouring inland through Amish country and several liberal arts college towns, including Oberlin and Wooster, rthen ejoining the lake shore and following it up through Toledo into Michigan. Six weeks later on election night, I was in Portland and watched the results come in on a big screen broadcast while standing in the Melody Ballroom in East Portland. I can recall how the dismal feeling welled up in my stomach, when I saw the graphic come up on Fox News with the projection for Ohio for Bush, knowing at once that it gave him another four years as president.

2000

Note that Gore + Nader is still less than Bush here.

2,351,209 (50.0%) Bush
2,186,190 (46.5%) Gore
117,857 (2.5%) Nader (Green)
13,475 (0.49%) Browne (Lib)