Iowa Slams the Door

 So proud of my native state. With two flips, they have apparently gone from 3-1 Democrat to 3-1 Republican in their four-seat House delegation. 

Update: One flip (IA-3) is definite. GOP challenger Miller-Meeks has a tiny lead in Iowa 2nd after recount in Lucas county, So not definite flip of the state to 3-1. But looks good. Might take weeks. A narrow win is still a win. At worst it's going to be 2-2 and out of the D column for any 12th Amendment vote, so the title of the post still applies.

My understanding that if the election goes to the House, the vote will be after the term of the new Congress starts on January 3, not before (assuming things are settled enough for the House to convene).

People are saying it is likely Pelosi is going to lose her speakership after January 3 from a Democratic challenger, even if the Republicans fall a few votes short of taking the House (assuming the races hold as being honest). 

The upshot is with the Iowa flip, the Republicans would have 26-28 states and the Democrats 22. Unclear what will happen with Pennsylvania, which is currently tied 8-8 but it won't matter. So much is going to happen there.Sean Parnell may still win that race, given all the hinkyness that we are going to find, and all the ballots that will be thrown out.  If anything the state will go into the R column, or stay tied.

The upshot is by Iowa being at least split, the Dems lost all hope of any victory in that chamber if it gets that far, e.g. by squeezing Don Young of Alaska and others. Pelosi would sit by as deposed speaker and as one of 53 in the California caucus while the Chamber gives Donald Trump his second term.

Like I said, it might be just too cool for all this to happen, so it probably won't. Americans would see the genius buried in the intricate design of our Constitution. I still believe somehow Donald Trump is going to lay some aces down on the table in short order, and the Democrats are going to throw in their cards before it gets that far. I have a feeling we're going to find out that Donald Trump was never in danger of losing this once the Red Wave showed up on election day.

Those Iowa pickups were on my funding list of candidates, by the way. It sure feels good to be have been a part of that.