Always Win: the 2016 Presidential Race

Of the candidates left, we have one who is pure Establishment insider (Hillary Clinton), and three who are not (Cruz, Sanders, and Trump).

The supporters of both Cruz and Sanders believe in the Establishment and want it to continue. They simply want to reform it in their own image and to their liking. Trump represents an apocalyptic end to the Establishment, and is therefore the most unacceptable of the three.

Ideally, in the Establishment thinking,  Jeb Bush will find a way to be President in January.

This is how it goes: nothing is conceded to Trump ever. Every state must be contested, every delegate fought for until the very end. He must not gain the magic threshold of 1237 committed delegates. If he gains that number of bound delegates, it would still be possible to thwart him at that point at the convention, but it would not play out well. He must be stopped short of that, even if by one delegate. So we are going to have every primary be a big battle, all the way to California on June 7. It will be as intense as Iowa and New Hampshire, all the way down the line.

If Trump can be stopped even one committed delegate short, there will be a way at the convention to scuttle his nomination. This is just a fact. They will find a way to do it. They know how.

Cruz will not get the nomination. Having sold his soul to them (his plan all along), he will be used and thrown away by them, just as Rubio was. Another candidate can be picked at that point. Why go through all that trouble if not to put Jeb Bush back on the ticket?

Cruz's supporters are die-hard believers in the Republican part of the Establishment, so they will feel slighted from this maneouver. Almost certainly we are looking at a Bush-Cruz ticket, to propitiate them. Cruz will never be allowed any real power, however, as they don't like him and don't trust him.

Kasich did his role in winning Ohio. His reward is nothing---because they don't have to give anything, so they won't.

How does Bush win the presidency?

His opponent will be Hillary of course. Given recent electoral history, Hillary would probably beat him in a straight up contest, so she must be hamstrung. This is happening exactly with Bernie Sanders. Sanders is the best thing to happen for Bush all this past year, in that he is siphoning off legitimacy and support from Clinton, so that when all is said and done, there will be little enthusiasm for her.

Ideally Sanders' supporters will be so disgusted that they will urge him to run on a third party ticket, such as the Green Party. Why not?

In November, Jeb wins in a narrow election and takes oath of office in 2017. Obviously Jeb is not very enthusiastic about being President. But the Establishment (and especially the Bush family) is very enthusiastic about not losing the Presidency, and even more importantly they do not want to let go of either of the two major political parties. Jeb's election will be a defensive election for them, simply to maintain power.

The worst case scenario is Hillary beats Jeb, which an acceptable outcome. In some ways, one thinks Jeb would prefer that.*

Will any of this happen? I don't know. But certainly this is one of the possible scenarios that they have considered as viable. If yours truly can think it up, then surely they have done so already, and more. I know this because their motto is Always Win. That means never giving up. It means figuring out a way to take it from the other guy, just when it seems like it is over. One keeps fighting forever, looking for the last minute victory. Hillary earned her stripes this way in 2008 against Obama, and showed she is worthy as a successor to the line of the Establishment (the Democratic branch).

But it is too late really for all them. Even if it played out as this, and Jeb (or Hillary) found a way to win, it would simply mean that they volunteered to be the ultimate scapegoat as it all came crashing down around them.

*One thing that could really muck up the works, and spoil the whole plan at this point, is if Cruz's campaign collapses and Trump steamrolls the rest of the way into the convention while piling up more than enough delegates to win on the first ballot.  If Trump can actually seize the Republican Party from them, you will see end-of-the-world kind of desperation from them.  Likewise if Hillary were to collapse before the convention, and Sanders could somehow become the nominee, then he could beat Bush-Cruz in a straight up two-party election. Hillary can be allowed to collapse, but not until after she becomes the nominee. They cannot lose the party---either one.