This year is an all-in election. No point in holding anything back, and in that vein, I went a bit nuts with political donations, at last count giving money to 55 different candidates for national office. All fifty-five are Republicans.
Only three are incumbents (shown by an asterisk below). The other 52 are challengers, most of them in the House of Representatives.
The strategy I use was suggested by a private pollster that I follow on Twitter, a guy who lives in Florida and who seems to very smart about elections. He posts a lot of inside poll information from his own firm, somewhat anonymously. He said something crucial about a week ago.
The purpose of polls, he said, is not to determine who is going to win. The purpose of polling is to determine where to direct money,
Most people like to give money to winners, he said. But the best place to put money is in a race you have an underfunded candidate, usually a challenger, who has some growing strength but needs a boost of funding to make a surge. In these races, he said, even a small amount of money can make a huge difference in leverage towards the end of the campaign.
So I took him up on his offer. Of the 47 House candidates whom I donated to, all but two of them were on his list of "underfunded hot challengers" who could possibly win, given a bit of last minute cash.
The Republicans are so strong this year that they are probably going to retake the House with a comfortable margin even if they win almost none of the races on my list. They are already well head in other races to win back the House and send Pelosi into retirement. The most probably Republican pick-ups in the House are not on my list, since they don't need my money. The candidates I have backed, if they were all to win, would make for a "red super tsunami" unseen in many decades, if ever. So I don't expect them all to win. Some of them I am rooting for especially, including places where I've lived, such as Oregon's 5th and New York's 11th.
I should add that my own House District, Arizona 6th district (north Scottsdale), is safe Republican, so I didn't give the Republican any money, saving it for others. But don't tell that to the Democrats. The few times I've turned on broadcast television lately, I've seen PAC money ads against him. Good. Please waste your money.
As for the Senate, I donated to the incumbents McSally and Gardener mostly so I could go on public record with name on their donation lists. I think both will win. The others are looking good. Not out of the question that I could go seven-for-seven in my Senate donation list.
One consequence of this is that I'm getting about twenty texts a day asking for folow-ups. Interesting to see who is most persistent.
One expected side effect of this I got to learn a LOT about the state of political donation web portals. As someone who does this for a living, I felt like the money I spent seeking out these candidates and following the donation links, and going through the process, was a massive education in this sub-field of the industry. Lots of insights. I might have to go into the business next time.
Donations Made
President
Donald Trump* (heck yes, I want my name on THAT list of donors)
U.S. Senate
AZ -- Martha McSally* CO -- Corey Gardener* MI -- John James NH -- Corky Messner NJ -- Rik Mehta OR -- Jo Rae Perkins VA -- David Gade
U.S. House of Representatives
AZ 1 -- Tiffany Shedd (monster district, wrapping from south of Phoenix along east side of state to Indian Co.) AZ 7 -- Josh Barnett (central Phoenix) AZ 9 -- Dave Giles (south Scottsdale, Mesa, Chandler) CA 7 -- Buzz Patterson (e. suburbs of Sacramento) CA 36 -- Erin Cruz (Riverside County) CA 49 -- Brian Maryott (Carlsbad, coast north of San Diego) CT 3 -- Margaret Streicker (New Haven, Stratford, Middletown) CT 5 -- David X. Sullivan (Meriden, Housatonic Valley) FL 7 -- Leo Valentin (Winter Park) FL 9 -- Bill Olson (Kissimmee, St. Cloud) FL 13 -- Anna Paulina Luna (St. Petersburg, Clearwater) FL 14 -- Christine Quinn (Tampa) FL 21 -- Laura Loomer (W. Palm Beach, Trump's home district) FL 23 -- Carla Spalding (north suburbs of Miami, parts of Broward County) IL 17 -- Esther Joy King (Peoria and the NW part of the state along Mississippi River) IA 2 -- Marianette Miller-Meeks (se quadrant of the state) ME 2 -- Dale Crafts (most of the state outside the Portland and the nearby coast) MD 7 -- Kim Klacik (urban Baltimore and Columbia) MN 3 -- Kendall Qualls (Eden Prairie, w. suburbs of Twin Cities) MN 7 -- Michelle Fishbach (most of the western side of the state) NV 3 -- Dan Rodimer (southern tip of the state south of Las Vegas) NV 4 -- Jim Marchant (central part of state north of Nevada) NH 1 -- Matt Mowers (Manchester and se part of the state) NH 2 -- Steve Negron (western part of state) NJ 3 -- David Richter (central state, Burlington, Ocean counties) NJ 5 --Frank Pallotta (northern, nw edge of state) NJ 11 -- Rosemary Becchi (Morrison and Boonton Lakes) NM 2 -- Yvette Herrel (southern half of the state, south of Alb.) NY 11 -- Nicole Malliotakis (Staten Island and Bay Ridge, Brooklyn) NY 19 -- Kyle Van De Water (Catskills, mid Hudson valley) NY 22 --Claudia Tenney (Utica, Rome, Binghampton) NY 25 --George Mitris (Rochester) OR 4 -- Alek Skarlato (Eugene, Corvallis, Roseburg, Gold Beach) OR 5 -- Amy Ryan Courser (Salem, Clackamas Co., Lincoln City) PA 6 -- John Emmons (Reading, Chester Co.) PA 7 -- Lisa Scheller (Allentown, E. Stroudsburg) PA 8 -- Jim Bognet (Scranton, Wilkes-Barre) PA 17 -- Sean Parnell (suburbs of Pittsburgh to Ohio state line) TX 7 -- Wesley Hunt (w. edge of Houston metro area) TX 32 -- Genevieve Collins (n. Dallas, Garland) UT 4 -- Burgess Owens (s. Salt Lake City and nearby valley) VA 2 -- Scott Taylor (Virginia Beach, Williamsburg) VA 7 -- Nick Freitas (Culpeper, parts of greater Richmond) VA 10 -- Aliscia Andrews (Loudon County, Manassas) WA 1 -- Jeffrey Beeler (e. King County to the Canandian border inland) WA 8 -- Jesse Jensen (exurban Tacoma, Ellensburg) WI 3 -- Derrick Van Orden (Stevens Point, Eau Claire, Lacrosse)
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