The Great Polish Gold Heist of '39

They shocked the world in August 1939 when they shook hands and announced a neutrality agreement. On the left, Vyacheslav Molotov, Foreign Minister of the Soviet Union. On the right,  Joachim von Ribbentrop, Foreign Minister of the Third Reich. 

Might course of World War II have been substantially different had the Polish Army in 1939 been able to hold out in the southeastern part of Poland, forcing the Germans into a long, grinding war by using a resupply line through neutral Romania?

Would this have dissuaded Stalin from invading Poland so readily? It was this invasion, not the German one, that made the giant war inevitable.

Hitler and Stalin had previously agreed to the partition of Poland, in late August 1939, but they kept this part of their agreement secret, announcing only that they had agreed on a "non-aggression pact" (standard terminology of the time).

They announced this agreement to a shocked world on August 23, 1939. Up until that time, it had been believed in the west by many that Hitler and Stalin were mortal enemies who would never make such a peace. Suddenly the two great Socialist powers (Nazi and Bolshevik) had found a common cause.

The Poles, believing (correctly) this agreement to be a signal of imminent German invasion (but not simultaneous German and Soviet invasion),  took immediate action by sending the Polish Navy into the Baltic Sea towards safe western ports, to be used in the eventually resupply effort through the Black Sea and the Romanian port of Constanța, as was their plan.

The Polish government also sent the bulk of its state gold reserves abroad immediately, through Romania, where half of it was stored in the Romanian state banks, and the rest went into British and French banks for safekeeping (as the British and French had agreed to guarantee Polish independence).

When the calendar turned and the first day of September 1939 arrived, the Germans dutifully invaded Poland from both the German mainland, as well as from East Prussia. It was the first true test of the new German armed forces in action, using the blitzkrieg technique of mechanized infantry, tanks, and air raids in a coordinate fashion to achieve rapid advances and quick victory.

The blitzkrieg achieved early apparent success, but its long-term viability against a stubborn eney was not yet established. Unlike the reputation the battle earned in later years, Polish Army fell back and defended chosen terrain very well, even when outnumbered.

The Polish Amy was pushed into the east and southeast, as planned, but they also chose to defend the capital Warsaw, which is fairly close to the German border.

The situation in Poland as of Sept. 14, 1939, with movements of troops after that, including the Soviet invasion up through Sept. 20.. Warsaw capitulated Sept. 28, and all resistance ceased by Oct. 6.

Eventually Warsaw was cut-off from the rest of the Polish Army forces. Only at this point did the Polish commander give the order for the rest of the army to retreat. But by then, the remaining Polish forces were no match for the Soviet Army suddenly invading from the East, with the deception of coming to the aid of their Polish brothers. The Polish Army could offer little resistance.

Poof went the possibility of making a stand in the southeast of Poland, and resupplying the Poish Army through Romania. With no other mission, the Polish Navy stayed in western ports, its ships suddenly able to serve the war effort of France and Britain. The Polish gold stayed in western and Romanian vaults, where its presence was hardly burdensome to those keeping it.

Poland was thus divided three ways---the Germans annexed the north and west (including Silesia, Warsaw and the Baltic Sea ports), and the Soviets annexed the east, including the part bordering Romania.  As a reward for appeasement, the British and French took the navy, as well as half of the Polish gold reserves, the rest going to Romania.

It is considered by historians that the Poles were not made aware of the secret protocol being Hitler and Stalin to divide Poland between them.

What if the Poles had been tipped off to the secret protocol? 

Would it have made a difference in a way that they could have better prepared for this simultaneous invasion?

Perhaps, to accommodate this scenario with any chance of survival, they have had to abandon Warsaw early, and fall back almost immediately toward the rough country around Romanian border, far from the German troops, but with their teeth bared straight at the Russians in a such a way to convince Stalin that it was in his best interest to let the Germans grind themselves down in a war of revealing attrition against the Poles, rather than jumping in as an aggressor against the Poles.

How could the Poles have know this information?

In turns out that the information was discovered by a western power. In particular, the secret protocol was known to a U.S. State Department functionary at the Moscow Embassy within 24 hours of the announcement of Nazi-Soviet pact.

His name was Charles Eustis "Chip" Bohlen (Harvard '27). He had served in the embassy since 1934, after learning Russian and joining the State Department out of college. He was given the details by his contact in the Soviet government. According to his account later, he "urgently" relayed the information to President Roosevelt. It appears the information did not go any farther than that. In particular, it was not relayed to the Polish government.

Chip Bohlen

"Bohlen, over the years, has become known for his bluntness--and in the eyes of some, his realism. In part, this quality enable him to reach the top rank of the United States' career diplomats. When he entered the Foreign Service in 1929, he was soon singled out as one of the six most promising entrants. He was sent to Paris to study Russian to prepare for the opening of diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union." (source)

Bohlen is an interesting man. He is one a group of six men featured in the book The Wise Men: Six Friends and How They Changed the World by Walter Isaacson, about a small group of upper class well-educated Americans who took the lead during the years after World War II to create a foreign policy that transcended political party, and thus guided America and the world into a new era of worldwide cooperation between nations, even in the midst of a long-term stand-off between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. According to Isaacson, in those early years these men proudly called themselves "The Establishment." It was meant to indicate that they could be trusted to guide the country no matter who was in the White House, and no matter who controlled Congress.