Obama 2012:
4,237,756 (50.01%)
Obama 2008:
4,282,367 (50.91%)
Kerry 2004: 3,583,544 (47.09%)
Gore 2000: 2,912,253 (48.84%)
Clinton: 1996:
2,546,870 (48.1%)
Clinton: 1992: 2,072,698 (39.00%)
Dukakis 1988: 1,656,701 (38.51%)
Mondale 1984: 1,448,816 (34.66%)
Carter 1980: 1,419,475 (38.50%)
Carter 1976:
1,636,000 (51.93%)
Romney 2012: 4,163,447 (49.13%)
McCain 2008: 4,046,219 (48.10%)
Bush 2004:
3,964,522 (52.10%)
Bush 2000:
2,912,790 (48.85%)
Dole: 1996: 2,244,536 (42.3%)
Bush: 1992:
2,173,310 (40.89%)
Bush 1988:
2,618,885 (60.87%)
Reagan 1984:
2,730,350 (65.32%)
Reagan 1980:
2,046,951 (55.52%)
Ford 1976: 1,469,531 (46.64%)
Nader 2008: 28,128
Nader 2000: 97,488
Buchanan 2000: 17,484
Perot 1996: 483,870 (9.1%)
Perot 1992: 1,053,067 (19.82%)
Anderson 1980: 189,692 (5.14%)
Comments for 2016
Florida's long-term steady
population growth means that the Presidential vote totals for both
Democrats and Republicans typically increase over time, in a ragged way from one election to another. The exception is when there is a very strong
third party candidate, as in 1992.
Through the 1980s, Florida
was reliably Republican in the Electoral College. Even Perot's huge total
in 1992 wasn't enough to give the state to Clinton, as it did elsewhere in
the nation. Once Clinton was in the White House, however, Floridians
both old and new apparently began finding it easier to vote for a Democrat for President, as did
many in the rest of the nation, for various reasons.
The
2000 election made Florida into the ultimate swing state---the most infamous knife-edge and controversial election in American history. Even though Gore lost (heh), it showed the trend so lc that he got close. Since then, the Democrats have built on natural strength not only in south
Florida (traditionally their strongest region), but also in other urban
areas and in college towns such as Gainesville and Tallahassee (which is
also the state capital, giving it double bonus Democratic base power, like Austin). As of now they have a patchwork of seemingly reliable counties across the state.
Yet Bill Clinton never got a majority here, even in 1996. Kerry got smoked here in 2004, and even at the crest of the historic Democratic tide, Obama managed only
narrow victories over McCain and Romney, and his
raw vote total actually decreased by a whisker from 2012 to 2008.
The Democrats have been
hoping that the time and demography will deliver them this Electoral College prize as
reliably blue at some point, like it did in California. When it comes to American
politics, however, things usually don't work out as simply as that. Relying on
demography to win your cause is usually a fool's game, historically
speaking.
In
2016, as it stands now, even with natural population growth, it is hard
to see Clinton's vote totals rising much above Obama's (just under 4.3 million). Her total may even
go down (that would make the second decrease in a row for Democrats). In
any case, it is hard to see a big push for her beyond 4.3-4.4 million,
and that's if she holds up to November without her campaign collapsing. Anything beyond that would happen only if there is massive turnout (and no strong third party), but that would probably inflate everyone's numbers correspondingly as well.
Florida on Super
Tuesday was probably Trump's most important victory in the primaries, even
greater in importance than New Hampshire. Had he lost in either of those states, he
probably would not be the presumptive nominee now. But whereas New Hampshire was a
cold water splash to the Republican Party (one they
had coped with successfully before), and South Carolina was a flashing danger sign, Florida. with its 99 winner-take-all delegates, was Trump's first true
gut punch to the Establishment, one from which they have not recovered. At the time their means of coping with it was to highlight Kasich's victory in Ohio on the same day to the point of comic relief.
Romney and McCain give us Trump's floor in Florida. He will certainly surge far beyond those numbers perhaps even with a strong third party candidate. We
can get a glimpse of this from the primaries in March. Florida was not just strong
for Trump, he won every
county across the state except for Dade (Miami), which went for Rubio. Trump even won in the college
towns, whereas Rubio won many of those elsewhere in the country outside his own home state. Most Republicans in Florida like Trump without reservation. The #NeverTrumps and Cruz folk were a no show on Super Tuesday. Republicans in Florida will vote for Trump with great gusto, and as in Ohio and other states, many will vote who were not engaged at all in recent elections.
Enthusiasm
as always is key. Hillary
will take the deep blue counties (such as Gadsden, Dade and
Broward), but
other counties that were trending light blue in late cycles will flip to pale
red. Even Osceola County may get interesting, if Trump's "unexpected" support among Hispanics (in this case Puerto Ricans), stays strong. Most significantly, many if not most of the pale red counties in central Florida will almost certainly darken into solid blocks of
maroon and
deep carmine.
Hillsborough and Flagler counties stand out as the bellwethers.
Prediction: The Democrats are looking at a buzz-saw here.
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| 2012 Election results in Florida (source) |
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| 2008 Election results in Florida (source) |
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| 2004 Election results in Florida (source) |
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| 2000 Election results in Florida (source) |
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| 1996 Election results in Florida (source) |
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| 1992 Election results in Florida (source) |
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| 1988 Election results in Florida (source) |
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| 1984 Election results in Florida (source) |
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Map of Florida highlighting Palm Beach County (source).
Palm Beach County is a county located in the state of Florida, directly north of Broward County. As of the 2010 census, the population was 1,320,134 making it the third-most populous county in Florida. The largest city and county seat is West Palm Beach. Named after one of its oldest settlements, Palm Beach, The area had been increasing in population since the late 19th
century, with the incorporation of West Palm Beach in 1894 and after Henry Flagler extended the Florida East Coast Railway and built the Royal Poinciana Hotel, The Breakers, and Whitehall. The county became the center of controversy during presidential election on November 7, 2000. Allegedly, the "butterfly ballot", designed by Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections Theresa LePore, led to an unexpectedly large number of votes for Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan, rather than for Democrat Al Gore. Due to the aforementioned "butterfly ballot" and the closeness of the statewide results between Gore and Texas Governor George W. Bush, manual recounts were conducted. On December 8, The Florida Supreme Court voted 4-3 to mandate manual recounts in all counties with disputed results. However, the Supreme Court of the United States overturned the decision in Bush v. Gore on December 12, allowing Florida Secretary of the State Katherine Harris
to award the 25 electoral votes to Bush, as Harris's tally prior to the
state-ordered recounts placed him ahead of Gore by 537 popular votes.
In turn, this gave Bush victory in the national election. |
1894 Flager's railroad network reaches present-day West Palm Beach. Flagler constructs the
Royal Poinciana Hotel in Palm Beach overlooking the
Lake Worth Lagoon. He also build
The Breakers Hotel on the ocean side of Palm Beach, and
Whitehall,
his private 55-room, 60,000 square foot winter home. The
development of these three structures, coupled with railroad access to
them, establishes Palm Beach as a winter resort for the wealthy members
of America's
Gilded Age.
1889 Flager's railroad network reaches from Jacksonville to Daytona.
1888 President Grover Cleveland visits Florida, highlighting tourism there.
1888
Ponce de León Hotel opens in St. Augustine (now part of
Flagler College).
1885 Origin of the Florida East Coast Railay. To support his hotel interests, Henry Flagler purchases the
Jacksonville, St. Augustine and Halifax River Railway. "Flagler next purchased three additional existing railroads: the
St. John's Railway, the
St. Augustine and Palatka Railway, and the
St. Johns and Halifax River Railway
so that he could provide extended rail service on standard gauge
tracks. Through the operation of these three railroads, by spring 1889
Flagler's system offered service from Jacksonville to
Daytona."
1885 Flagler returns to Florida and begins planning for construction of the
Ponce de León Hotel.
1882 Flagler steps down from active operations in Standard Oil (while remaining on the Board of Directors), to pursue his interests in Florida.
1881 Mary dies. Flagler later marries again to to Ida Alice Shourds, who had been a caregiver for Mary. After their wedding, the couple travel to St. Augustine."Flagler found the city charming, but the hotel facilities and transportation systems inadequate.
Franklin W. Smith had just finished building
Villa Zorayda
and Flagler offered to buy it for his honeymoon. Smith would not sell,
but he planted the seed of St. Augustine's and Florida's future in
Flagler's mind."
1878 Henry Flager travels to Jacksonville with his first wife Mary, who is ill, on the advice of their physician.
1867 Henry Flagler, age 37, gives $100,000 to John D. Rockefeller to found
Standard Oil, on the condition that Flagler be made partner. "Needing capital for his new venture, Rockefeller approached Flagler in 1867. Flagler obtained $100,000 (equivalent of $1.7 million in 2015) from family member Stephen V. Harkness on the condition that Flagler be made a partner. The Rockefeller, Andrews & Flagler partnership was formed with Flagler in control of Harkness' interest. The partnership eventually grew into the Standard Oil Corporation. It was Flagler's idea to use the rebate system to strengthen the firm's position against competitors and the transporting enterprises alike. Flagler was in a special position to make those deals due to his connections as a grain merchant. Though the refunds issued amounted to no more than fifteen cents on the dollar, they put Standard Oil in position to undercut other oil refineries."
1863 John D. Rockefeller of Cleveland acquires his first oil refinery, supplying distilled petroleum products (for lamp oil) to the Union Army in place of the turpentine lost from the embargo by the Southern states.
1862-1865 Union occupation of Jacksonville during the Civil War.
1855-1858 Third Seminole War, starting with the raid Chief
Billy Bowlegs near
Fort Myers. It consisted mainly of
Seminole raids and American reprisals, with no large battles. In
1858, most of the remaining Seminoles, weary of war and with their
villages and farms mostly destroyed, agreed to be shipped to Oklahoma in
exchange for promises of safe passage and cash payments to their
chiefs. An estimated 100 Seminoles still refused to leave and moved deep
into the
Florida Everglades to live on land that was unwanted by white settlers."
1845 (Mar. 3) Florida statehood.
1838 Death of Osceola, influential Seminole leader.
1835-1842 Second Seminole War. "Battles and skirmishes raged throughout the Florida peninsula, with the
outgunned and outnumbered Seminoles often using
guerrilla warfare
tactics and both sides massacring civilians during the conflict. The
war eventually resulted in most of the Seminole population in Florida
being killed in battle, ravaged by starvation and disease or relocated
to Indian Territory
. A few hundred Seminoles were allowed to remain in an unofficial reservation in southwest Florida."
1832
Treaty of Payne's Landing between U.S. and Seminoles. Seminoles agree to leave Florida for the Indian Territory in modern
Oklahoma. Seminoles later claim to have signed it under duress, leading to the Second Seminole War.
1832 The Florida Legislative Council approves the charter for
Jacksonville, named after President Jackson. "In 1821, after the U.S. acquired Florida, American settlers on the north side of the Cow Ford had decided to plan a town, laying out the streets and plats. "
1830
Henry Morisson Flagler born in Hopwell, N.Y.
1824 Florida territorial capital moved to Tallahassee.
1823 Treaty of Moultrie Creek. Seminoles required to leave northern Florida and were confined to a
large reservation in the center of the Florida peninsula.
1821 Spain cedes Florida to the United States. Florida Territory is organized with capital at St. Augustine.
1816-1819 First Seminole War. prompted by incursions by Gen. Andrew Jackson into Spanish Florida in support of American settlement there. "The governments of Britain and Spain both expressed outrage over the "invasion" but ultimately, the Spanish Crown agreed to cede Florida to the United States."
1813-1814
The Creek War. Osceola moves his family to Florida, "a regional war between opposing Creek factions, European empires, and the United States, taking place largely in
Alabama and along the Gulf Coast. The major conflicts of the war took place between state militias and the "Red Stick" Creeks. Osceola migrates to Florida with his family and other
Red Stick refugee after their defeat."
1804 Birth of
Osceola."Born Billy Powell, of mixed parentage,
Creek,
Scots-Irish, and English, he was raised as a Creek by his mother, as the tribe had a
matrilineal kinship system and later became an influential leader of the
Seminole in Florida."
1783 Great Britain cedes Florida back to Spain, in the Treaty of Paris following the American Revolution.
1763 Spanish cede Florida to Great Britain, at the end of the French and Indian War.
1565 St. Augustine founded by Spanish admiral and Florida's first governor,
Pedro Menéndez de Avilés.
He named the settlement "San AgustÃn", as his ships bearing settlers,
troops, and supplies from Spain had first sighted land in Florida on
August 28, 1565, the feast day of St. Augustine. The city served as the capital of
Spanish Florida for over 200 years,
1513 First voyage of Ponce de León along the coast of Florida.
1508
Juan Ponce de León (b. 1474) a lieutenant of Columbus, is appointed as the first governor of Puerto Rico, having founded the first Spanish settlement on the island.
1493 Second voyage of Columbus. The first contact of the Spanish with the natives of Puerto Rico.
