Thursday, May 25, 2017

How Peace is Coming to the Middle East

The Saudi-Israeli alliance in its current form dates from 2006 (the two nations had been cooperating via their intelligence services for many years before that).

In 2006, however, the Saudis and Israelis created a new military alliance that was meant to fulfill longterm stability needs in the Middle East, in an era going forward in which Americans would eventually withdraw a large number of their forces.

The alliance was not well-publicized in the West, but neither was it hidden. But it was ignored in the American press and media. This is because it was taken as a direct threat to the power base of certain segments of the U.S. government, for whom the status quo of the Middle East---low grade warfare involving both regular armies and guerrilla factions, was in fact necessary for the continuation these segments of the government in holding power. This most directly involved the U.S. State Department.

The effort of the U.S. State Department to keep itself as the center of the Middle East balance of power is paramount to the State Department.

In the meantime the Saudi-Israeli backbone of the new security alliance evolved in what became called the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The GCC as an alliance involves other Arab states, including in particular Iraq, where the GCC has been instrumental in creating an effective new Iraqi Army that---with American special forces training and Israeli-designed new generation aerial weapons, has virtually annihilated ISIS and other guerrilla forces in Iraq.

This has happened rather quietly, and (once again) ignored by the U.S. media.  All of these efforts by the Saudis and Israelis to create a stable, peaceful Middle East have been bitterly opposed by the U.S. State Department, which sided with Iran, the archenemy of both Israel and Saudi Arabia.

All Trump has done is get out of the way, and let this happen. That's why they treated him like a conqueror.

Going forward the U.S. help in the Middle East will be quiet, and largely in support of the GCC through training, weapons, and intelligence.

The most pressing task is the winding down of the ultra-corrupt Assad regime in Syria.  Assad has mostly been a pawn of Iran for years, and in control of nothing inside in his country except the capital. Everything else has been the Iranians propping him up.

The night after Trump slammed the airway with the Tomahawks, the flights from Damascus to Teheran were packed with Iranians leaving the country.

The missile strike essentially destroyed the airplanes while letting the GCC use the airfield as it quietly invades Syria, takes it over, and transitions the kingdom to a constitutional restoration.

Many people have learned many lessons from many mistakes. What we are seeing play out right now is the fruit of those bitter mistakes.

The final act of the drama will be the downfall of Iran. This will not happen by military invasion but by the overthrow of the mullahs by their own people. The Islamic Republic will be overthrown. Women in Teheran will throw off their hijabs in joy. This is going to confuse lots of people in Europe and North America.

It's OK to be confused now. It will make sense as time goes by.


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